Exploring The Options For A Partial Points Refund Of The Marriott Travel Packages, Which Package Should You Buy Now?

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Related Marriott Travel Packages posts:

• All About Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Travel Packages; The Best Way To Spend Your Starpoints.
• Guesstimating Where Marriott Travel Packages Will Work In August; Take Advantage Of Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Packages Now!
• Marriott Will Massively Devalue New Miles+Nights Travel Packages In August; Comparing The Value Of The Current Packages To The New Packages
• Another Guess At What Will Happen With Marriott’s Miles+Nights Travel Packages And Which You Should Buy Now Before It’s Too Late!
• Marriott Has No Plans On Letting Us Know What They Plan On Doing With Current Travel Packages, But Don’t Let That Stop You From Taking Advantage Of Them!

So much digital ink has been spilled speculating about what will happen with Marriott’s lucrative travel packages after the merger with the Starwood program in August.

In my last post I laid out 4 potential options. In short, option 1 is a paltry 45K Marriott point refund. Option 2 is a point refund equal to the current value of the certificate. Option 3 is a replacement certificate valid for a certain amount of points per night, I explored option 3 at length here. Option 4 is a replacement certificate valid at comparable new categories, I explored option 4 at length here.

From what Starwood’s representative on Flyertalk is saying, it seems option 2 is a good possibility though (Click to enlarge):

In other words, if you have a travel package certificate and have it assigned to a specific hotel stay then it will remain valid, though it’s unclear what will happen if you want to make changes after the program merger. If you do choose a Marriott hotel that is going up from a Marriott category 5 to a category 6, clearly it will be advantageous to assign it now rather than waiting, which is why he recommends assigning that certificate now to maximize its usage.

If the travel package certificate is not assigned to a hotel stay then it will be considered a “floater certificate” and will be cancelled and converted into “equivalent points.”

Starwood Lurker says that he no information on what “equivalent points” means and that he is just passing on information from the loyalty team in charge of the merger.

I think it’s more than clear that option 1 above isn’t “equivalent points.” Marriott couldn’t sell travel packages now in good faith if they plan on cancelling everyone’s unassigned 7 night hotel certificates and refunding just 45K points. There will be lawsuits if Marriott would even think of trying to pull a fast one like that and nothing Marriott has done so far indicates they want to burn members and goodwill like that.

That would leave option 2 as the best option.

A category 1-5 package costs 270K Marriott points and the 7 night package is good for a max of 150K points. A category 9 package costs 390K Marriott points and the 7 night package is good for a max of 270K points. A tier 4-5 package costs 540K Marriott points and the 7 night package is good for a max of 420K points. Notice a pattern here? The amount spent for the airline miles part of the package is always 120K points. If Marriott refunds the hotel certificate part of the package into points that will mean you’ll pay 120K Marriott (40K SPG) for 132K United miles (1.1 miles per Marriott point or 3.3 miles per SPG point). If you choose miles with an airline like Alaska or American that would mean you’ll pay 120K Marriott (40K SPG) for 120K miles (1 miles per Marriott point or 3 miles per SPG point).

Those are amazing values for your hotel points, though it’s worth noting that it will be much harder to accumulate Marriott points once the Starwood AMEX goes from earning 3 points per dollar spent to just 2 points per dollar on on August 1st.

Could there be an even more generous option 5 though?

When the new program launches there won’t be a category 8, but there will be one in February 2019. Hotels in that category will cost between 70K-100K Marriott points per night. Even taking the standard category 8 rate of 85K Marriott points per night, a 7 night stay at a top-tier hotel would cost 510K Marriott points after the 5th night free is accounted for. The argument could be made that a Ritz tier 4-5 certificate costing 540K Marriott points ought to be refunded to 510K Marriott points if the certificate is cancelled. That would mean you would have only paid 30K Marriott points for 132K United miles (4.4 miles per Marriott point or 13.2 miles per SPG point)!

It all depends on how they decide to define equivalent points. My guess would be what I originally said would be option 2, with a refund of all points used for the travel package besides for the 120K points that will be considered used for the airline mileage transfer.

So why is this still a question?

I guess it comes down to how much you trust Starwood Lurker. This statement is much more vague:

And some of his information is clearly wrong, such as the following, where he misses the asterisk listed by all category 8 properties on the combined award chart, which goes to:

*An eighth category will be added in early 2019. Until then, Category 8 hotels will be available at Category 7 pricing.

Clearly Starwood Lurker isn’t always right. However the floater certificate information does come from higher sourses with Marriott/SPG.

At any rate though, option 2 is definitely a strong possibility.

With option 2 it won’t make a difference which travel package you buy. No matter what you’ll be getting a refund of all points used, except for 120K Marriott points (40K Starpoints). That’s a great deal for 120K-132K airline miles and it explains why Marriott isn’t announcing anything official yet. If they did announce this there would be a run on these certificates as people would convert their hotel points out to airline miles, which would cost Marriott a ton of money as they have to buy those miles from the airlines.

In other words if option 2 comes to fruition, you should buy the category 1-5 package for 270K Marriott points as that would have the lowest number of points locked up until Marriott refunds the 150K points for the hotel portion of the package.

It’s no surprise that they will be massively devaluing new travel packages in August.

Then again, there is what to be said for splurging on the Tier 4-5 option for 540K Marriott points. If Marriott decides to go with option 2 you would still get a refund of 420K points. However if Marriott decides to honor these packages for use at hotels, you should be able to use these at any Marriott or SPG hotel systemwide. And if Marriott goes with option 5 and decides to refund the cost of what these hotels are in the new program, you would get back a refund of 510K points!

Another blogger wrote that he think Marriott will keep certificates for category 5 valid for new category 5, category 6 for new category 6, category 7 for new category 7, and category 8 for new category 8. I find this scenario extremely unlikely to happen. Everything Marriott has done is to convert current values to new values. That’s why SPG Gold remains Gold while Marriott Gold becomes Platinum as they will retain their night threshold and benefits. It would also anger everyone who bought category 9, tier 1-3, and tier 4-5 certificates. I don’t see any possible way this will be the outcome.

Want to buy a travel package before they are discontinued? Which category will you buy?

Short on Starpoints/Marriott points?

• You can still buy Starpoints here.

Here are Marriott’s top miles+nights travel packages for 7 nights in a hotel and United miles. With these you can get up to 132K miles and it’s always worth getting the 132K miles package if you can afford it. Prices are in Marriott points (divide by 3 for the price in Starpoints):

Here are Marriott’s 2nd best miles+nights packages for 7 nights in a hotel and Aeromexico, Air Canada, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, British Airways, Copa Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, GOL/Varig, Hawaiian Airlines, Iberia Airlines, Southwest, or Virgin Atlantic miles. With these you can get up to 120K miles and it’s always worth getting the 120K miles package if you can afford it. Prices are in Marriott points (divide by 3 for the price in Starpoints):

• You must call Marriott at 800-321-7396 if you want to book a miles+nights travel package. They can’t be booked online.
• The miles will post within a few days of the transfer, regardless of when or if you use the 7 night certificate. You may also be able to pay to expedite the mileage posting.
• The 7 night electronic hotel certificate expires in 1 year, though Marriott currently will extend them for 1 additional year if you contact them.
• You don’t need to choose the hotel at the time of a nights+miles redemption.
• The certificate must be used at one property for 7 consecutive nights.
• You can have the certificate issued in anyone’s name.
• You can currently upgrade your hotel certificate by paying the difference in points later on.

Will you buy a travel package before they are devalued next month?

Related Marriott-SPG merger posts:

• AMAZING! Marriott’s New Award Chart Is A Dream Come True For Aspirational Hotels; Roundup Of The Hotel Category Changes 
• Don’t Wait: Book Hotel Awards Now Before The Starwood-Marriott Merger!
• Where Will You Be Able To Use Chase Marriott And Starwood Anniversary Nights?
• Another Guess At What Will Happen With Marriott’s Miles+Nights Travel PackagesAnd Which You Should Buy Now Before It’s Too Late!
• Breaking Down The New Marriott/Starwood Combined Cash+Points And PointSavers Award Charts
• Marriott Will Massively Devalue New Miles+Nights Travel Packages In August;Comparing The Value Of The Current Packages To The New Packages
• Final Opportunity: Get 35% Off The Purchase Of Starwood Starpoints; Buy The Points You Need To Take Advantage Of These 7 Awesome Redemptions!
• Get A 75,000 Point Signup Bonus On The Chase Marriott Rewards Premier Plus Credit Card!
• Live Blog: Follow The Marriott-Starwood Program Merger Announcement!
• 3 Starwood AMEX Cards In The New Marriott Program: A Comparison Chart Of The Good, The Bad, And The Horrific
• Comparison Chart: How Marriott’s August 2018 And February 2019 Award Chart Compares With The Current SPG And Marriott Award Charts
• Marriott Got Almost Everything Perfect, But The Starwood AMEX Cuts Are Just Too Painful
• Rack Up The Starpoints While You Still Can: There Will Be 6 Months Of Amazing Starwood Hotel Bargains!
• No Marriott, The Starwood AMEX Card Will Not Be Richer Than Ever. You Are Just Changing What I’ll Use It For
• Starwood-Marriott Merger FAQs: Answers To Your Questions About Anniversary Nights, Status From Existing Cards, And More
• The Starwood Consumer AMEX And Multiple Chase Marriott Cards Are Being Discontinued! Here’s What You Need To Know About 9 Starwood And Marriott Cards
• Will The Starwood Cards Disappear Or Lose Their Starpoints Signup Bonuses Today? Now Is The Time To Signup If You Don’t Have These Cards Yet!
• AMEX: 3 Starwood Cards Will Be Available For New Applications After The SPG-Marriott Program Merger In August
• Guesstimating Where Marriott Travel Packages Will Work In August; Take Advantage Of Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Packages Now!
• A Week Later, But No Solid Answers To 3 Contradictory Marriott-Starwood Merger Details That Everyone Wants To Know
• Marriott Clarifies Contradictory SPG Gold Information
• Roundup Of The SPG/Marriott Lifetime Status Rules; Will You Be Able To Hit Lifetime Status This Year Before The Lifetime Program Is Devalued?