Guesstimating Where Marriott Travel Packages Will Work In August; Take Advantage Of Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Packages Now!

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Before reading this post, I’d strongly recommend that you read this post: All About Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Travel Packages; The Best Way To Spend Your Starpoints.

This is a highly technical, advanced level post, but in it I will show you how it’s possible to get up to 6.6 airline miles per Starpoint when combined with a hotel stay. Be sure to first read this all about post about how to redeem points for these travel packages. Then try reading through this post a few times and finally, ask questions in the comments and I’ll try to answer them.

Marriott has said that their popular miles+nights travel packages will be sticking around in the new program. However they currently offer 5 packages with miles that vary based on the airline miles that you choose. Marriott said that they will combine those packages into a simpler option that will work with all airlines and the new unified award chart.

To me, that means it’s very likely that the 2 most lucrative packages for transfers to airlines will be devalued.

Here are Marriott’s top miles+nights travel packages for 7 nights in a hotel and United miles. With these you can get up to 132K miles and it’s always worth getting the 132K miles package if you can afford it. Prices are in Marriott points (divide by 3 for the price in Starpoints):

 

Here are Marriott’s 2nd best miles+nights packages for 7 nights in a hotel and Aeromexico, Air Canada, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, British Airways, Copa Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, GOL/Varig, Hawaiian Airlines, Iberia Airlines, Southwest, or Virgin Atlantic miles. With these you can get up to 120K miles and it’s always worth getting the 120K miles package if you can afford it. Prices are in Marriott points (divide by 3 for the price in Starpoints):

The other airline packages are much less lucrative. You can only earn up to 60K-85K miles with those. I fear that the new packages will be closer to what those ones offer.

I’d highly recommend locking in packages now at the current rates. You have to call Marriott to book these and you choose the hotel later on. Be sure to read this post for all of the information that you need to know about these packages! In August you will be able to use these certificates at SPG and Marriott hotels, but how exactly will Marriott map the value of these certificates to the new unified program?

Marriott currently has 14 categories of hotels that will be moved into 7 new categories in August.

Let’s start by examining the Chase Marriott Premier card which will be discontinued very soon. Click Here to get more details on this card and compare to other hotel cards!

That card currently advertises a free category 1-5 anniversary night, but going forward it will give an anniversary night valid at hotels that cost up to 25K points (Other Starwood and Marriott cards will give free nights valid at hotels that cost 35K-50K points per night, but I’ll just examine the Marriott Premier free night in this post as it is the only one that is changing valid categories with the launch of the new unified award chart).

Let’s take a look at a comparison chart that I put together. All prices here are in Marriott points as I have tripled the prices in the Starwood award chart to help make things a little easier to compare.

 Previous Starwood ChartPrevious Previous Marriott ChartAugust 2018 Combined ChartFebruary 2019 Combined Chart
Category 16,000 (Weekends)
9,000 (Weekdays)
7,5007,5005,000 off-peak
7,500 standard
10,000 peak
Category 29,000 (Weekends)
12,000 (Weekdays)
10,00012,50010,000 off-peak
12,500 standard
15,000 peak
Category 321,00015,00017,50015,000 off-peak
17,500 standard
20,000 peak
Category 430,00020,00025,00020,000 off-peak
25,000 standard
30,000 peak
Category 536,000 off-peak
48,000 peak
25,00035,00030,000 off-peak
35,000 standard
40,000 peak
Category 660,000 off-peak
75,000 peak
30,00050,00040,000 off-peak
50,000 standard
60,000 peak
Category 790,000 off-peak
105,000 peak
35,00060,00050,000 off-peak
60,000 standard
70,000 peak
Category 8-40,000-70,000 off-peak
85,000 standard
100,000 peak
Category 9-45,000--
Ritz Tier 1-30,000--
Ritz Tier 2-40,000--
Ritz Tier 3-50,000--
Ritz Tier 4-60,000--
Ritz Tier 5-70,000--

In other words the current anniversary night is valid at Marriott category 1 through 5 hotels. Those hotels currently cost 7,500-25,000 points per night on the Marriott award chart.

The new anniversary night will be valid at category 1 through 4 hotels on the unified award chart in August. You’ll notice that those hotels also range from 7,500-25,000 points per night. Therefore it’s not a devaluation of the certificate, those categories will simply be valid for the same hotels that are currently 1 through 5 on the Marriott award chart that are likely to become placed as a category 1 through 4 on the unified award chart.

In fact, the certificate will become more valuable as SPG hotels will also be available on the unified award chart. There are 7 categories of SPG hotels and I’d guess that most of them will slide right into the new category 1-7 hotels on the unified chart.

Using that same logic:

  • I’d guess that the Marriott category 1-5 travel package certificates will be valid at Marriott and SPG category 1-4 hotels in the unified award chart starting in August. After all, those both are good at rooms that cost up to 25K points per night, so that’s perfectly logical.

The other categories will be harder to pin down, but let’s make some educated guesses:

  • Marriott category 6 currently costs 30K points per night. On the August unified chart, category 5 will cost 35K points. I would guess that Marriott will round up and allow Marriott category 6 certificates to be used at unified category 5 Marriott and SPG hotels in August. However Marriott may choose to round down and limit the current category 6 certificates to unified category 4 hotels.
  • Marriott category 7 currently costs 35K points per night. On the August unified chart, category 5 will cost 35K points. This matches up exactly and I would guess that Marriott will allow Marriott category 7 certificates to be used at unified category 5 Marriott and SPG hotels in August.
  • Marriott category 8 currently costs 40K points per night. On the August unified chart, category 6 will cost 50K points. I would guess that Marriott will round up and allow Marriott category 8 certificates to be used at unified category 6 Marriott and SPG hotels in August. However Marriott may choose to round down and limit these certificates to unified category 5 hotels.
  • Marriott category 9 currently costs 45K points per night. On the August unified chart, category 6 will cost 50K points. I would guess that Marriott will round up and allow Marriott category 9 certificates to be used at unified category 6 Marriott and SPG hotels in August. However Marriott may choose to round down and limit these certificates to unified category 5 hotels.
  • Ritz tier 1-3 hotels currently cost up to 50K points per night. On the August unified chart, category 6 will cost 50K points. This matches up exactly and I would guess that Marriott will allow Ritz tier 1-3 certificates to be used at unified category 6 Marriott and SPG hotels in August. It’s possible that they will generous and give these a boost to category 7 though, especially if they allow category 8 and 9 certificates to be used at unified category 6 hotels.
  • Ritz tier 4-5 hotels currently cost up to 60K points per night. On the August unified chart, category 7 will cost 60K points. This matches up exactly and I would guess that Marriott will allow Ritz tier 4-5 certificates to be used at unified category 7 Marriott and SPG hotels in August.

 

Obviously there was a lot of guesswork there, but let’s assume that everything comes to fruition. And let’s assume that hotels in the 7 SPG categories will migrate into the 7 unified categories. What will that mean if you want to redeem for 7 nights in an SPG hotel?

  • Category 4 SPG hotels include the Sheraton Kona Resort & Spa At Keauhou Bay, HI, the Four Points Miami Beach, the Sheraton Brooklyn, the Westin Fort Lauderdale Beach Resort, and the W Beijing.
    • Currently, 7 nights at those hotels cost 180K Marriott points (60K Starpoints).
    • In August, 7 nights at those hotels will cost 125K Marriott points (41,667 Starpoints).
    • If my guesswork holds true then you will be able to redeem for a Marriott category 1-5 travel package now for 270K Marriott points (90K Starpoints), you’ll get 132K United miles now, and you can stay in those hotels for 7 nights starting in August. If you value those nights at the lower August price of 125K Marriott points (41,667 Starpoints) then you will be effectively using 48,333 Starpoints for 132K United miles. That’s 2.73 United miles for every Starpoint transferred, or a 173% transfer bonus compared to the standard 25% SPG airline transfer bonus!
  • Category 5 SPG hotels include the Royal Palm South Beach, the Sheraton Kauai Resort, the W Miami, and the W New York
    • Currently, 7 nights at those hotels cost 216K Marriott points (72K Starpoints) during off-peak times.
    • Currently, 7 nights at those hotels cost 288K Marriott points (96K Starpoints) during peak times.
    • In August, 7 nights at those hotels will cost 210K Marriott points (70K Starpoints) during all times.
    • If my guesswork holds true then you will be able to redeem for a Marriott category 6 travel package now for 300K Marriott points (100K Starpoints), you’ll get 132K United miles now, and you can stay in those hotels for 7 nights starting in August. If you value those nights at the lower August price of 210K Marriott points/70K Starpoints then you will be effectively using 30K Starpoints for 132K United miles. That’s 4.4 United miles for every Starpoint transferred, or a 340% transfer bonus compared to the standard 25% airline transfer bonus!
    • I think that the worst case scenario here is that you will need to redeem for a Marriott category 7 travel package now for 330K Marriott points (110K Starpoints), you’ll get 132K United miles now, and you can stay in those hotels for 7 nights starting in August. If you value those nights at the lower August price of 210K Marriott points/70K Starpoints then you will be effectively using 40K Starpoints for 132K United miles. That’s 3.3 United miles for every Starpoint transferred, or a 230% transfer bonus compared to the standard 25% airline transfer bonus!
  • Category 6 SPG hotels include the Sheraton Tel Aviv, the W Hong Kong, the Westin Venice, the SLS Beverly Hills, and the W Retreat Vieques Island, Puerto Rico
    • Currently, 7 nights at those hotels cost 360K Marriott points (120K Starpoints) during off-peak times.
    • Currently, 7 nights at those hotels cost 450K Marriott points (150K Starpoints) during peak times.
    • In August, 7 nights at those hotels will cost 300K Marriott points (100K Starpoints) during all times.
    • If my guesswork holds true then you will be able to redeem for a Marriott category 8 travel package now for 360K Marriott points (120K Starpoints), you’ll get 132K United miles now, and you can stay in those hotels for 7 nights starting in August. If you value those nights at the lower August price of 300K Marriott points/100K Starpoints then you will be effectively using 20K Starpoints for 132K United miles. That’s 6.6 United miles for every Starpoint transferred, or a 560% transfer bonus compared to the standard 25% airline transfer bonus!
    • I think that the worst case scenario here is that you will need to redeem for a Ritz Tier 1-3 travel package now for 420K Marriott points (140K Starpoints), you’ll get 132K United miles now, and you can stay in those hotels for 7 nights starting in August. If you value those nights at the lower August price of 300K Marriott points/100K Starpoints then you will be effectively using 40K Starpoints for 132K United miles. That’s 3.3 United miles for every Starpoint transferred, or a 230% transfer bonus compared to the standard 25% airline transfer bonus!
  • Category 7 SPG hotels include the S. Regis Bal Harbour, the S. Regis Princeville, Kauai, and the Gritti Palace, Venice.
    • Currently, 7 nights at those hotels cost 540K Marriott points (180K Starpoints) during off-peak times.
    • Currently, 7 nights at those hotels cost 630K Marriott points (210K Starpoints) during peak times.
    • In August, 7 nights at those hotels will cost 360K Marriott points (120K Starpoints) during all times.
    • If my guesswork holds true then you will be able to redeem for a Ritz Tier 4-5 travel package now for 540K Marriott points (180K Starpoints), you’ll get 132K United miles now, and you can stay in those hotels for 7 nights starting in August. If you value those nights at the lower August price of 360K Marriott points/120K Starpoints then you will be effectively using 60K Starpoints for 132K United miles. That’s 2.2 United miles for every Starpoint transferred, or a 120% transfer bonus compared to the standard 25% airline transfer bonus!
    • If Marriott is feeling generous and they allow you to redeem for a Ritz Tier 1-3 travel package for unified category 7 hotels, you can redeem that now for 420K Marriott points (140K Starpoints), you’ll get 132K United miles now, and you can stay in those hotels for 7 nights starting in August. If you value those nights at the lower August price of 360K Marriott points/120K Starpoints then you will be effectively using 20K Starpoints for 132K United miles. That’s 6.6 United miles for every Starpoint transferred, or a 560% transfer bonus compared to the standard 25% airline transfer bonus!

Need a Tylenol after all those words? Here’s a chart to try to visualize these scenarios. Costs are given in Starpoints, multiply costs by 3 for the cost in Marriott points.

Unified Categories 1-4Unified Category 5Unified Category 6Unified Category 7
Best Case ScenarioRequires Marriott category 1-5 certificateRequires Marriott category 6 certificateRequires Marriott category 8 certificateRequires Ritz Tier 1-3 certificate
Worst Case ScenarioN/ARequires Marriott category 7 certificateRequires Ritz Tier 1-3 certificateRequires Ritz Tier 4-5 certificate
Cost in August for 7 nights without airline miles (In Starpoints)41,66770K100K120K
Best Case Scenario Cost for 132K United Miles And 7 nights (In Starpoints)90K100K120K140K
Worst Case Cost Scenario for 7 Nights And 132K United Miles (In Starpoints)N/A110K140K180K
Best Case Cost Scenario for 7 Nights And 132K United Miles (In Starpoints)1 Starpoint=2.73 United miles1 Starpoint=4.4 United miles1 Starpoint=6.6 United miles1 Starpoint=6.6 United miles
Worst Case Ratio Of Starwood To United Transfer RatioN/A1 Starpoint=3.3 United miles1 Starpoint=3.3 United miles1 Starpoint=2.2 United miles

Marriott does allow you to redeem for the lowest hotel category package and upgrade them if you need to with the difference in points. But if they devalue these awards there’s no way to know if you will be able to pay the old rates or if you will have to pay the new rates in a devalued travel package.

Marriott also has a 5 night travel package, but those are intended for timeshare owners. Some reps may sell them to any member and you can read about them in this post.

Again, this post contains a lot of conjecture and guesswork, but I do think these are likely scenarios given the information that we know. Feel free to disagree in the comments 😀

I think that the travel packages will be devalued shortly. I don’t know if we will get advance notice of the devaluation, so if you do want to roll the dice on these, I’d do so sooner rather than later. I don’t assume any responsibility in case things don’t end up as I’m guessing, but these are all educated guesses on where things will end up.

Will you buy a Marriott travel package now to use on SPG hotels starting in August?


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75 Comments On "Guesstimating Where Marriott Travel Packages Will Work In August; Take Advantage Of Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Packages Now!"

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Gary

Dan, this reads like a commentary to the Mishnah. Bravo!!!

Dansdealsfollower

Dan,

Are they keeping the redeem 4 nights get the 5th night free?

A

You don’t think the best case scenario is that they will honor an old 6 for a new 6 old 7 for a new 7 etc or am I dreaming 🙂

P.s Dan you are amazing I really appreciate what you do

Dr Moose

Can you sum it up, why should I take advantage of it now as opposed to waiting till August?

Julian

Dan, would you take advantage and if so, which one and why?

Marcus

Dan, I failed Yeshiva miserably, hence my complete confusion. Lol.

But I do have 2 of the 7 night packages (which I intend on upgrading), bottom line are you suggesting i redeem the vouchers prior to August?

The part that confused me, is that you kept saying “and you can stay in those hotels for 7 nights starting in August. ”

I hope you understood my question, and can clarify.

Thank you

Jb

I booked a hotel for an spg resort and already paid the points for it. 10k per night for 4 nights (40k points). This isn’t for a stay till September. If I decide to cancel the trip after the merger goes into affect, will the reimburse me 120k Marriott points it 80k Marriott points? What do you think?

New York jets

I like the idea of posting difficulty levels for all of your posts!!

Marilyn Berman

Wow – I will need 7 nights just to recover from trying to follow this! 🙂

Josh

Dan – if you had to guess, what should i upgrade my cat 1-5 voucher to so that I can use it for the Disney Swan or Dolphin? Thanks!

Davidrotts63

Yup. And I pulled the string on the SPG biz.

usernamechuck

I was thinking that old cat 6 is a good bet to end up in new cat 5, because 30K is equidistant from 35K and 25K. I was more doubtful of old cat 8, since 40K is much closer to 35K than to 50K. But now I grow doubtful.

Here’s how I could rationalize it if I were Marriott. What if we look at all the old hotels in e.g. cat 8, and ask where most of them end up? If most cat 8 hotels move into new cat 5, i.e., 35K rather than 40K (and Marriott is saying that most hotels will cost fewer points in August than they do now), it seems reasonable to say that old cat 8 certs should be converted to new cat 5 certs. (And honestly, when we compare cat 8 Marriotts to cat 6 SPGs and or tier 4 Ritzs… well, it’s easy to imagine a world where 65% or more of cat 8s end up in cat 5.)

The way I’d do it if I were them is to refund points to people who had tweener certs. If you have a cat 6 cert, you convert to a cat 4 cert and get a refund of 30K on 8/1; if you have a cat 8 cert, they convert to new cat 5 and refund 30K (MP). Or perhaps they might give people the option to move up by spending another 30K, or to move down and get a refund of 30K. It comes to the same thing.

I think they were brilliant to devalue last month. It makes it easy to say that more hotels are moving down in price, even if they’re just moving back to where they were in January.

Ari

Will Miles + Nights transfer qualify me for a Southwest Companion Pass? If so doesn’t that make that package the most valuable? If you use the companion pass on every flight you are essentialy getting 240K points + 7 night hotel stay. Even if you only use it sometimes you are still getting more than 120k.

John

Will I still have my gold status on United thru Marriott

Chaim s

Hi dan, thank so much for everything you do!
I want to go to Israel in the summer
I have a 140k Starpoints.
Which airline for flight and level package for hotel 7 nights in Israel would be my best option?
Thanks a million

neal

“Then try reading through this post a few times” Dan – I could not agree with you more. Do not ask any questions until you have read and reread this post a few times. Once you do, you will understand it – assuming you understand the hotel + air package from Marriot and that you read all about the SPG Marriot merger. If you did not then don’t read this post until you read those other ones that Dan references.

Thank you Dan

CZ60

Do we know when they will release the hotel/category chart? Want to go to Princeville and debating if I should go for Tier 1-3 or Tier 4-5.

Adira

I am in the same situation. Have u decided what to do yet?

eli

i’m getting dizzy

CZ60

For the second chart (non-united) – does it ever pay to transfer more than the minimum number of miles? The price increases by exactly the amount of miles you’d get. If you chose the fewest miles, then you can transfer miles later at 20:25 and you’d come out better…?

Ab

I have a category 1-5 certificate. I have currently enough points to upgrade it to a category 8. What would you recommend if I want to use it in a family friendly resort in either southern CA or near Miami in the winter? There doesn’t seem to be any category 6 spg resorts there, only 5s and 7s in Florida.

Deb

Hmmm…would you say it’s worth buying starpoints in order to purchase a travel package? I wouldn’t normally do that except to just top off.

Daniel

Hi amazing post! I have around 250k starpoints and I really only care about united miles. Would it be better to get the Marriott travel packages with the included United miles or transfer to Marriott points and then convert to united miles?

Nate

Do you need to say explicitly when buying to what name to issue the certificate?

mo

im a bit confused. If I get the cat 8 package now- (120K SPG) I will get 132 United miles and you saying the best case scenario I will be able to use those nights at a Marriott current cat 9/ritz cat 4-5/ spg current cat 7? and worse case scenario I will be able to use it at Marriott current cat 8/ ritz 1-3/ spg current cat 6?

David Friend

so you think I should buy the 132k united pkg for the spg level 6 and that would take care of airfare and hotel for 7 nights for pesach 2019?

itshappening

if someones holding a cat 5 cartifucate now, and wants to stay in a higher cat/ tier hotel ultimately, should they redeem starpoints for the upgrade now, or will they be able to wait?
thanks!

mark

How do I look for availability for these and how do I book?

M family

I’d like to go to Israel this summer with my family. Is there any Marriott hotels in or near Jerusalem? It will probably be in July.
However, until i finalize the dates, i won’t know what airline I’m using. Still worth it to book a package now?

Dave

I have a 7 day package, do I need to upgrade before 8/1?

JW

Dan, do you recommend buying 30k starwood points now to be able to afford the 7 nights and 132k miles in tier 4-5?

Eli

If I would like a 7 day certificate at category 7 SPG hotel (+ 132k United miles) , which Marriott category should I do now when redeeming?

Adira

See above chart. Dan guesses either ritz 1-3 or 4-5.

Rico

I’m looking at getting a Travel package for Hawaii Waikoloa today’s Cat 8 (40k a night).

Would you speculate this is becoming a unified Cat 6 (50k) or a unified Cat 5 (35k) property?

Wondering if I could save a few points by getting a travel package one level below in anticipation of the realignment.

Glushtygiz

Hey Dan this post is unreal thanx! 2 qs… firstly are all suite hotels like bora bora and Maldives included in ritz tier 4-5/spg cat 7 ? And where do u think cat 9 will end up?

kevin

Dan, If i buy the Marriott cat 6 package now (cost 300k marriott). Will i be able to redeem it on the Rits cat 1-3 after Aug 1?

Glushtygiz

Likely not

miles

will the value of 7 night certificate go up after aug

KJ

Any idea on this comment that floater certificates will be cancelled and converted to points? It’s super unclear how it would convert if any.

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/starwood-starwood-preferred-guest/1904261-official-announcement-see-how-our-three-loyalty-programs-will-become-one-august-86.html

“Question on the “floater certificates” being canceled and points redeposited into the account on Aug 1st. Does this include outstanding Marriott Travel packages here: Flight and Hotel Packages Marriott Hotel Packages
Floater certificates, including outstanding Marriott Travel Package certificates, will be cancelled and converted to equivalent points, credited to the member’s account for future redemption. “

Notsteve

Maybe you could post a new write up given the latest information about new hotel categories. Thanks.

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