Marriott Will Massively Devalue New Miles+Nights Travel Packages In August; Comparing The Value Of The Current Packages To The New Packages

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Related Marriott Travel Packages posts:

Currently Marriott offers various miles+nights travel packages that vary in cost based on which airline you choose. Read the “all about” post linked to above to learn how to book these.

Here are Marriott’s current miles+nights travel packages for 7 nights in a hotel and United miles. This is the most lucrative option:

 

Here are Marriott’s Marriott’s miles+nights packages for 7 nights in a hotel and Aeromexico, Air Canada, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, British Airways, Copa Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, GOL/Varig, Hawaiian Airlines, Iberia Airlines, Southwest, or Virgin Atlantic miles:

Here are Marriott’s Marriott’s miles+nights packages for 7 nights in a hotel and Aeroflot, Air China, Air France/KLM, Alitalia, ANA, Asia Miles, Asiana Airlines, Avianca-TACA LifeMiles, China Eastern, Emirates, Etihad Airways, Japan Airlines, Jet Airways, Korean Air SKYPASS, LAN, Lufthansa Miles & More, Multiplus, Qantas, Qatar Airways, Saudia Airlines, Singapore Airlines, South African Airways Voyager, TAP Air Portugal, Turkish Airlines

 

The new travel packages are markedly worse than the United option and the Air package 1 option.

They will be valid for Aegean, Aeroflot, AeroMexico, Air Canada Aeroplan, Air China, Air France/KLM Flying Blue, Alaska, Alitalia, ANA, American, Asiana, Avianca LifeMiles, British Airways, Cathay Pacific Asia Miles, China Eastern, China Southern, Copa, Delta, Emirates, Etihad, Frontier, Hainan, Hawaiian, Iberia, JAL, Jet, Korean, LATAM, Lufthansa, Multiplus, Qantas, Qatar, Saudia, Singapore, South African, Southwest. TAP, Thai, Turkish, Virgin Atlantic, and Virgin Australia.

If you transfer to United you’ll get 10% bonus miles above what is published below.

I wrote back in April that I feared that the new packages would be much closer in line to the Air Package 2 and that’s pretty much what happened, only it’s a bit worse than that.

I also guessed in that post that categories 1-5 would become categories 1-4, and that is how Marriott is lumping things together.

You can still buy the current Marriott packages, but Marriott refuses to say what exactly will happen with this certificates in August. Will they be mapped over to the new categories? Will they be refunded for lots of points or perhaps not many points at all? That’s a big question mark, but I’d guess that it will work out very positively for those willing to take a risk. I think Marriott is staying mum because they don’t want to create a mad rush to buy the current overly lucrative travel packages.

The new packages will go for sale in August and they’re not pretty. There’s still clarity needed about whether they will work for peak nights starting in February 2019, which may add some value to them. But for now let’s assume the standard award rate and try to figure out the value of the transfer ratio from Marriott to airline miles based on how you value the 7 night certificate.

Currently, 270K Marriott points (90K Starpoints) is enough for 7 nights in a category 1-5 Marriott plus 132K United miles, 120K miles with most other domestic carriers, or 85K miles with most foreign carriers.

If you value the 7 nights at the full 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them, that means you are using 120K additional Marriott points for 132K United miles (1:1.1 ratio), or 120K miles with an airline like Alaska (1:1 ratio), or 85K miles with an airline like ANA (1:0.7 ratio)

But if you only value the 7 nights at say, 70% of the regular 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them, so we’ll assign 105K points form the cost of the package towards the hotel nights. That means you are using 165K additional Marriott points for 132K United miles (1:0.8 ratio), or 120K miles with an airline like Alaska (1:0.73 ratio), or 85K miles with an airline like ANA (1:0.52 ratio)

Even if you only value the 7 nights at half of the regular 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them it can be a good deal currently. We’ll assign 75K points form the cost of the package towards the hotel nights. That means you are using 195K additional Marriott points for 132K United miles (1:0.68 ratio), or 120K miles with an airline like Alaska (1:0.62 ratio), or 85K miles with an airline like ANA (1:0.44 ratio).

With the new chart, you’ll need 330K points (110K Starpoints) for 7 nights in a combined category 1-4 hotel (roughly equal to the old 1-5) plus 110K United miles or 100K miles with other domestic carriers. If you value the 7 nights at the full 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them, that means you are using 180K additional Marriott points for 110K United miles (1:0.61 ratio), or 100K miles with other airlines (1:0.56 ratio).

But if you only value the 7 nights at say, 70% of the regular 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them, so we’ll assign 105K points form the cost of the package towards the hotel nights. That means you are using 225K additional Marriott points for 110K United miles (1:0.49 ratio), or 100K miles with other airlines (1:0.44 ratio). 

However if you only value the 7 nights at half of the regular 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them it basically kills the deal. We’ll assign 75K points form the cost of the package towards the hotel nights. That means you are using 255K additional Marriott points for 110K United miles (1:0.43 ratio), or 100K miles with other airlines (1:0.39 ratio). 

Under the new combined program, 60K Marriott points will transfer into 25K airline miles (1:0.42 ratio) without the need to book nights together with the mileage transfer. There may also be a bonus for transfers to United, if there is a 10% bonus that would make a 60K Marriott points transfer into 27.5K United (1:0.46 ratio) miles.

There is still value to be had with the new travel packages that will be for sale in August, but they are nowhere near as lucrative as the current packages that are still for sale. I’d recommend buying a current travel package and hoping for the best rather than wait for these devalued travel packages to go for sale in August.

Will you be buying a travel package before they’re devalued?

Short on Marriott/Starpoints?

Related Marriott-SPG merger posts:

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38 Comments on "Marriott Will Massively Devalue New Miles+Nights Travel Packages In August; Comparing The Value Of The Current Packages To The New Packages"

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mark bander

i have a cat 1-5 marriott hotel certificate expires on 6/2019–should i book now –thanks

A B

Hi, short question if I have 320k Marriot points what will be the best thing to do, mostly interested in selling into cash, Thanks

Isaac

How much are you will to sell it for?

E

Interested in buying if you want to sell

Ali

I have been accumulating SPG and Marriott points to use in Asia (first trip ever to Asia).

I am looking to go to Japan (and possibly add a few days in Vietnam) May 18 – 27, 2019. I am not sure if it is better to redeem United Miles and use them on a partner site or go with the Japan Airlines miles.

I am pretty new to using airline miles and I am trying to get it right!

Ali

If I am understanding the chart, I can get a round-trip in business class on ANA for my dates in May 2019 for 85K points.

Now the hotel is harder to figure out, Tokyo seems have higher price points. Marriott in Tokyo only has category 7 or 8.

Jim

I have a cat 8 certificate already assigned to a reservation in January, and I assume that will be fine.

I’m going to buy a couple cat 1-5 270,000 pt packages and make reservations by August 1. Great value for the air miles. And I think there will be good value when Marriott cat 5s list expands with the merger. Probably need to reserve the hotel before Aug 1st to be safe from certificate devaluation.

I’m assuming I will have to base them on the current hotel categories, and won’t be able to combine the old pricing of certificates with the new lowered tiers? Has that been clarified? Confusing but thanks Dan for the insights.

Mdrills

Dan look at your twitter mentions today I asked them this question and this is their response
“Travel Packages are being updated to reflect the new award chart pricing. They will be available to book at all hotels participating in Loyalty after our programs become one.”

Mdrills

what do they mean?

Dave

Any updates on the 5 night travel packages?

Cap

This was the analysis I was waiting for. A mixed, but fixed, value analysis of the current Marriott Travel Pkgs vs the new. I’m definitely pulling trigger on current pkg (Asiana 85k or Alaska 120k for me). Thanks Dan!

Steven

I plan on either buying 1 or 2 category 1-5s. I hesitate at getting 2 as I have heard from some source that they won’t allow you to renew them. Used to be that Marriott would extend an expiring certificate for another year by request, and definitely if you were interested in upgrading it (say to a category 6 for 30K extra Marriott points). What can you tell us about the extension options?

HoKo

Would recommend you transform all the ratio information into a chart/graphic. Would be a lot easier to read than it’s current text form

Runnergirl

I’m a buyer and think it’s a great deal. I’m not sure which package to buy this time around, particularly because I am still not clear on where the Ritz Carlton hotels fall into the mix. Since I only like to stay in 5 star hotels is it best to purchase a Ritz-Carlton 1-3 or a 3-4 or Marriott 9 going to get me the type of hotels I like in those categories? Any insights?

Levi

Hi Dan,

I have about 220k spg points and 250k Marriott points .
I was wondering if I should just go ahead and buy a few packages with my spg as the points will be devaluated drastically .
Which packages are the best to buy ?

Thank you in advance

Michael

Dan I think you awnsered this in comments just want to confirm: we have no knowledge if someone booked a hotel with a higher category package whether we can get the points reduced to a lower package of hotel points went down- correct?

paul

after august would you be able to upgrade the 7 night certificates for 30k ,to move up a category, for prexisiting packages bought before august?

David B

Does there need to be room availability for Marriott Rewards points to use these certificates, or can you use them at a Marriott so long as there is general availability?

Ten Bucks a Week

I’m in for one package, but trying to decide on second. One property I’m interested in in Kona is dropping to 25K a night, so I may save the rest of the points for a 5 night stay. Great article, I was waiting for this before booking, crossing my fingers for July United bonus miles on girl transfers, but doubt that will happen.

Uri

Dan: Why would I not want to use my SPG points for one of current Miles & Nights Packages. 90K Starpoints will get me 7 days (Category 1-5) plus 132K United miles. Even I don’t use the Hotel voucher, I still have 132K United miles. On the other hand if I just exchange 90K Starpoints directly for United miles, I would only get 123.75K United miles, at best. Am I missing something? Thanks.

DD

What do You think the odds are If I get a cat 7 flights and night package, That it be possible I’d be able to book a st regis maldives package with the old package once the new award system in place? Especially for availability? Thanks Dan!

Sam

Dan- Do you still suggest going ahead with Cat 8 purchase right now? I know I had read that in your previous article. Thanks!

Deal Guy

Hey Dan,

If you book the nights and fights package now and they announce mid month tha old certifs will be devaluated, do you know if you can get a full refund?

Is the package refundable and if so how much time do you have after you order ?

Thanks

CautiousMarriottGuest

Currently, if you cancel a travel package, you only get 45,000 points back for a Cat 1-5 certificate (for higher category certificate, you get 45,000 points plus the difference in cost from the Cat 1-5 and the certificate you purchased). So, Cat 8 would get back 135,000 points.

You will not get a full refund, because the airline miles portion of the TP is non-refundable.

Avi

Dan – with what is expected to be some very affordable options to go to Maldives and Bora Bora in August, it would be great if you can post an article on some of the ideal getaways under the new points system and what are the best ways to get there using points. I’m sure there will be many who will want to get rooms at the St Regis in Maldives and Bora Bora. Thanks!

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