Marriott Will Massively Devalue New Miles+Nights Travel Packages In August; Comparing The Value Of The Current Packages To The New Packages

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Related Marriott Travel Packages posts:

• All About Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Travel Packages; The Best Way To Spend Your Starpoints.
• Guesstimating Where Marriott Travel Packages Will Work In August; Take Advantage Of Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Packages Now!

Currently Marriott offers various miles+nights travel packages that vary in cost based on which airline you choose. Read the “all about” post linked to above to learn how to book these.

Here are Marriott’s current miles+nights travel packages for 7 nights in a hotel and United miles. This is the most lucrative option:

Here are Marriott’s Marriott’s miles+nights packages for 7 nights in a hotel and Aeromexico, Air Canada, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, British Airways, Copa Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, GOL/Varig, Hawaiian Airlines, Iberia Airlines, Southwest, or Virgin Atlantic miles:

Here are Marriott’s Marriott’s miles+nights packages for 7 nights in a hotel and Aeroflot, Air China, Air France/KLM, Alitalia, ANA, Asia Miles, Asiana Airlines, Avianca-TACA LifeMiles, China Eastern, Emirates, Etihad Airways, Japan Airlines, Jet Airways, Korean Air SKYPASS, LAN, Lufthansa Miles & More, Multiplus, Qantas, Qatar Airways, Saudia Airlines, Singapore Airlines, South African Airways Voyager, TAP Air Portugal, Turkish Airlines

The new travel packages are markedly worse than the United option and the Air package 1 option.

They will be valid for Aegean, Aeroflot, AeroMexico, Air Canada Aeroplan, Air China, Air France/KLM Flying Blue, Alaska, Alitalia, ANA, American, Asiana, Avianca LifeMiles, British Airways, Cathay Pacific Asia Miles, China Eastern, China Southern, Copa, Delta, Emirates, Etihad, Frontier, Hainan, Hawaiian, Iberia, JAL, Jet, Korean, LATAM, Lufthansa, Multiplus, Qantas, Qatar, Saudia, Singapore, South African, Southwest. TAP, Thai, Turkish, Virgin Atlantic, and Virgin Australia.

If you transfer to United you’ll get 10% bonus miles above what is published below.

I wrote back in April that I feared that the new packages would be much closer in line to the Air Package 2 and that’s pretty much what happened, only it’s a bit worse than that.

I also guessed in that post that categories 1-5 would become categories 1-4, and that is how Marriott is lumping things together.

You can still buy the current Marriott packages, but Marriott refuses to say what exactly will happen with this certificates in August. Will they be mapped over to the new categories? Will they be refunded for lots of points or perhaps not many points at all? That’s a big question mark, but I’d guess that it will work out very positively for those willing to take a risk. I think Marriott is staying mum because they don’t want to create a mad rush to buy the current overly lucrative travel packages.

The new packages will go for sale in August and they’re not pretty. There’s still clarity needed about whether they will work for peak nights starting in February 2019, which may add some value to them. But for now let’s assume the standard award rate and try to figure out the value of the transfer ratio from Marriott to airline miles based on how you value the 7 night certificate.

Currently, 270K Marriott points (90K Starpoints) is enough for 7 nights in a category 1-5 Marriott plus 132K United miles, 120K miles with most other domestic carriers, or 85K miles with most foreign carriers.

If you value the 7 nights at the full 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them, that means you are using 120K additional Marriott points for 132K United miles (1:1.1 ratio), or 120K miles with an airline like Alaska (1:1 ratio), or 85K miles with an airline like ANA (1:0.7 ratio)

But if you only value the 7 nights at say, 70% of the regular 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them, so we’ll assign 105K points form the cost of the package towards the hotel nights. That means you are using 165K additional Marriott points for 132K United miles (1:0.8 ratio), or 120K miles with an airline like Alaska (1:0.73 ratio), or 85K miles with an airline like ANA (1:0.52 ratio)

Even if you only value the 7 nights at half of the regular 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them it can be a good deal currently. We’ll assign 75K points form the cost of the package towards the hotel nights. That means you are using 195K additional Marriott points for 132K United miles (1:0.68 ratio), or 120K miles with an airline like Alaska (1:0.62 ratio), or 85K miles with an airline like ANA (1:0.44 ratio).

With the new chart, you’ll need 330K points (110K Starpoints) for 7 nights in a combined category 1-4 hotel (roughly equal to the old 1-5) plus 110K United miles or 100K miles with other domestic carriers. If you value the 7 nights at the full 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them, that means you are using 180K additional Marriott points for 110K United miles (1:0.61 ratio), or 100K miles with other airlines (1:0.56 ratio).

But if you only value the 7 nights at say, 70% of the regular 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them, so we’ll assign 105K points form the cost of the package towards the hotel nights. That means you are using 225K additional Marriott points for 110K United miles (1:0.49 ratio), or 100K miles with other airlines (1:0.44 ratio). 

However if you only value the 7 nights at half of the regular 150,000 Marriott rate that it would cost to book them it basically kills the deal. We’ll assign 75K points form the cost of the package towards the hotel nights. That means you are using 255K additional Marriott points for 110K United miles (1:0.43 ratio), or 100K miles with other airlines (1:0.39 ratio). 

Under the new combined program, 60K Marriott points will transfer into 25K airline miles (1:0.42 ratio) without the need to book nights together with the mileage transfer. There may also be a bonus for transfers to United, if there is a 10% bonus that would make a 60K Marriott points transfer into 27.5K United (1:0.46 ratio) miles.

There is still value to be had with the new travel packages that will be for sale in August, but they are nowhere near as lucrative as the current packages that are still for sale. I’d recommend buying a current travel package and hoping for the best rather than wait for these devalued travel packages to go for sale in August.

Will you be buying a travel package before they’re devalued?

Short on Marriott/Starpoints?

• Until 7/20 only, you can still buy Starpoints on sale for 35% off for the final time. This will be an absolute BARGAIN for staying in the top-tier hotels below.
• Earn Marriott/Starpoints on the new Chase Marriott Rewards® Premier Plus Credit Card with a limited time 75,000 Marriott point signup bonus.

Related Marriott-SPG merger posts:

• Breaking Down The New Marriott/Starwood Combined Cash+Points And PointSavers Award Charts
• AMAZING! Marriott’s New Award Chart Is A Dream Come True For Aspirational Hotels; Roundup Of The Hotel Category Changes 
• Final Opportunity: Get 35% Off The Purchase Of Starwood Starpoints; Buy The Points You Need To Take Advantage Of These 7 Awesome Redemptions!
• Get A 75,000 Point Signup Bonus On The Chase Marriott Rewards Premier Plus Credit Card!
• Live Blog: Follow The Marriott-Starwood Program Merger Announcement!
• 3 Starwood AMEX Cards In The New Marriott Program: A Comparison Chart Of The Good, The Bad, And The Horrific
• Comparison Chart: How Marriott’s August 2018 And February 2019 Award Chart Compares With The Current SPG And Marriott Award Charts
• Marriott Got Almost Everything Perfect, But The Starwood AMEX Cuts Are Just Too Painful
• Rack Up The Starpoints While You Still Can: There Will Be 6 Months Of Amazing Starwood Hotel Bargains!
• No Marriott, The Starwood AMEX Card Will Not Be Richer Than Ever. You Are Just Changing What I’ll Use It For
• Starwood-Marriott Merger FAQs: Answers To Your Questions About Anniversary Nights, Status From Existing Cards, And More
• The Starwood Consumer AMEX And Multiple Chase Marriott Cards Are Being Discontinued! Here’s What You Need To Know About 9 Starwood And Marriott Cards
• Will The Starwood Cards Disappear Or Lose Their Starpoints Signup Bonuses Today? Now Is The Time To Signup If You Don’t Have These Cards Yet!
• AMEX: 3 Starwood Cards Will Be Available For New Applications After The SPG-Marriott Program Merger In August
• Guesstimating Where Marriott Travel Packages Will Work In August; Take Advantage Of Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Packages Now!
• A Week Later, But No Solid Answers To 3 Contradictory Marriott-Starwood Merger Details That Everyone Wants To Know
• Marriott Clarifies Contradictory SPG Gold Information
• Roundup Of The SPG/Marriott Lifetime Status Rules; Will You Be Able To Hit Lifetime Status This Year Before The Lifetime Program Is Devalued?