It Won’t Happen…But Wouldn’t An Electoral College Tie Be The Most 2020 Thing Ever?

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The 2016 Electoral College Map
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The US Constitution requires selected electors to choose the President of the United States. Alexander Hamilton made the case for an electoral college system based on electors having access to information not available to the general public. It would take a herculean effort for the US to switch to a popular voting system.

There have been 538 electoral votes up for grabs since the 1964 election. Before then there was an odd number of electoral votes, which certainly makes a lot more sense than an even number of votes.

While most states give all of their electoral votes based on even a one vote margin in the state’s popular vote, Maine and Nebraska are notable exceptions.

Nebraska decided to split their electoral votes back in 1991 in order to get more attention from Presidential candidates. Candidates typically ignore non-competitive states, but Nebraska suddenly became competitive by splitting electoral votes by congressional district.

Maine split their electoral votes back in 1972 after a 3 way race between Nixon, Humphrey, and Wallace. They didn’t want to have a scenario where someone without a majority of the state popular vote would get all the electoral votes.

Those decisions are looming large this year. Had Nebraska awarded all 5 of their electoral votes to the popular vote winner, Trump would have a much easier path to victory. Of course that would be offset by Biden winning all of Maine.

Nebraska has unsuccessfully tried to change back to awarding all of their electoral votes to the popular vote winner many times since 1991, so their split vote system remains in place.

In 2016 Trump won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Had Trump carried the district this year, a tie like the one below could have been a viable scenario:

 

I mentioned that possibility on this excellent DDF thread last night, but since then Nebraska’s 2nd district has been called for Biden.

That means assuming Biden wins Arizona, Trump will need more than just Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania to win, as he would still lose by 1 electoral vote:

 

What happens if there’s a tie?

It would mean the election of the President goes to the House of Representatives and the election of the Vice President goes to the Senate.

However while each Senator would have a vote, in the House the vote would be by state delegation, which gives each state just one vote. Voting continues until one candidate gets 26 votes.

Despite pollsters saying they expected Democrats to win control of the Senate, it appears that Republicans may be able to retain control of the Senate and would pick the Vice President in case of a tie.

Currently, Republicans are in control of 26 state delegations and Democrats are in control of 23 state delegations. Pennsylvania has a tied delegation. However the next Congress will be the one to choose the President. It looks to me that Republicans will keep their 26 state delegations and would be the ones to pick the President in case of a tie.

Of course this assumes the electors vote as they’re supposed to and that there are no faithless electors, in which case all bets are off!

Could a tie still happen?

It’s highly unlikely, but there are paths to a tie, such as this long-shot:

 

But hey, it’s 2020 and anything can happen!

In all likelihood, it will be weeks until we definitively know who won as cases will be tied up in recounts and in the courts as we wait for final results in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. There will also be a recount in Wisconsin, though that seems like a long-shot for Trump to win. Trump is also asking the US Supreme Court to intervene in the Pennsylvania vote count.

The New York Times believes that Trump has an 86% chance to take North Carolina and Biden has a 64% chance to take Georgia. Losing Georgia would require Trump wins in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania just to achieve an electoral tie. Things certainly don’t look good for President Trump right now.

So, who do you think will ultimately prevail?

As Of Wednesday, Who Do You Think Will Win The 2020 Election?

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85 Comments On "It Won’t Happen…But Wouldn’t An Electoral College Tie Be The Most 2020 Thing Ever?"

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pe

thank you for the in depth article much appreciated

simcha

+1

Abey

Yep tue would’ve made this more fun and actually Looked like it was happening for a while… IMO all states should split electorals like Maine and Nebraska it would be a much more representative vote and more people would vote

Ari

I think the most likely outcome at this point is the 270/268 for Biden. Of course Trump will challenge it in the courts, etc. and who knows, a faithless elector could crop up in the 270, and who knows what happens then!
Faithless electors would be the most 2020 thing in my opion.

Thanks, Obama

The most 2020 thing would be 268/269 and one of the EV magically disappearing.

Boca

We might get an electoral vote for John Ewards again

Larry

Nope, not gonna happen. Not even close. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, most Faithless President ever.

Scott Silver

Trump was faithless? You have got to be kidding me.

KenZein

Note that the NYT needle stopped updated as of 6am this morning per the note on top of the page. GA is probably still in toss-up range, but who knows.

ExGingi

Can we stop pretending that this was a race between Trump and Biden. This race was between Trump and the Democrat (Bolshevik) party machine that chose Biden and his running mates to represent them. That’s the scary part, a vote against Trump was a vote against freedom and democracy.

But that is history now. And we will just have to wait and see. Regardless of the final outcome, I give it a 99% chance that whoever is sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021 will not be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2025.

Tuck

You would have supported Mr. Hitler also.

YI

How dare you compare him to that Rasha. There was absolutely nothing ever done by him even closely related to the genocide of the European Jews. 6 million lives of innocent people slaughtered and you dare to trivialize that by using Hitler as a talking point. Shame on you

Shayna

Actually, Tuck did no such thing. They said that ExGingi’s thought process is (clearly) delusional and brainwashed. Same as the people who voted for that pig in Germany. And by the way, perhaps refresh your memory on how HE came to power and the terrifying similarities. Shaking faith in and destroying institutions, turning the populace on real journalists, creating your own state media, Germany/America First hideousness, brutal suppression of protesters, blatant voter suppression efforts, and yes, most horrifically, making ethnic minorities scapegoats. No dictator starts out committing genocide. That’s why it is so heartbreaking and baffling that some in our community are supporters. I genuinely do not understand it. Maybe someone could explain?

Saul

And now for some basic math:

:(+Trump=Hitler=Biden+): =Godwin’s Law

Godwin’s law (or Godwin’s rule of Hitler analogies) is an Internet adage asserting that “as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1”. That is, if an online discussion (regardless of topic or scope) goes on long enough, sooner or later someone will compare someone or something to Adolf Hitler or his deeds. (Wikipedia)

Bob

This race was between the network reality-show image makers and Biden, who was chosen by some of the voters in South Carolina before all of them gave the state’s Electoral College votes to Trump.

??

Why are the polls so sure that Biden will get Nevada? Biden’s only leading by a 1/2 point with only 75% counted?

Alexander

Looks like Trump unfortunately lost but, the good thing is that the Republicans control the Senate. Therefore, no trying to add and stack the Supreme Court, no passing crazy tax increases, no pressuring Israel! BH!

YaakovD

@Dan for prez 2024?

israel stein

If you could buy it with Starwood points.

A.G.

Then he’ll link a picture from his Instagram page in the Whitehouse in every article

R

Thanks Dan for the info!

Scott Silver

I am pretty upset at all the fraud that has taken place. Why does it take all these states days to count the votes. Its a travesty.

Yaakov Doe

Because of Covid there are far more absentee ballots than ever before and they must opened and counted. There have been no verified cases of fraud. The closest thing is an allegation that something like 70 ballots came late somewhere and were counted.

Shayna

What fraud could you be talking about? The only person saying that (including republican governors and secretaries of state) is the man who’s fragile, gigantic ego is at stake. It has been (BH) a peaceful and orderly election by all accounts.

Jack

@shayna Not sure where in the galaxy you are currently residing, when you happen to make it to planet earth just take a brief moment and take a brief glance at any social media platform and you will see countless videos with hard evidence of the most shocking despicable fraud that many thought was low EVEN for the corrupt leftist machine. Truth will prevail!

JR

Jack, same could be said for you “where in the galaxy you are residing?”. Anything you see online is only as believable as you want to make it to be, nothing is factual anymore. That is why we’re so divided as a people. To be clear though, I agree with @Shayna.

PS – search for facts here before you start sharing your fake stories. https://www.snopes.com/

Kneeslapper

Snopes as fact verification. Lol. And nytimes for real news….

Chaim

My uncle was not let in to vote in Houston because he was wearing a trump mask! He had to leave and come back disguised as a Democrat…. sounds bad to me!

pptel

@Jack
“social media” should have been an easy hint.
STOP glancing in that direction.
Even non-political website like this one will give you more reliable information.

Jack

Right bc I know you would rather me just look at CNN and NBC, I don’t understand why you are all under the assumption that we are fools. Right we should search the facts from your link LOL
Dems got caught yet again. Truth will prevail, the same way Trump wasn’t impeached and Brett Kavanagh got to the Supreme Court.
And yes I would rather vote for a “bully” than Iran (the worlds leading sponsor of terror) become a superpower.

WM

You must be living under a rock or a part of the corrupt leftist machine commiting all the fraud!
And let me tell you there are thousands and thousands of pple all over social media complaining bout real voter fraud that took place. Good thing actually the president isnt letting this get by so easily and he will fight it till the end.
Can you Tell me how trump is leading big in many of the important swing states late into election night, who then suddenly decide to stop counting votes, and then we go to sleep and wake up and mysteriously 100,000+ ballots show up in middle of the night all in favor of the same candidate (biden).
You gotta be blind to deny that this election isnt the biggest scandal to our countrys democracy of fair elections!

JR

Seriously??? Get a grip you people! You are literally falling for the biggest joke of our lifetime and people are being duped daily by the president and his clown posse. Everyone knew this election was not going to be called the night of, it will take at least a week to count all the ballots especially with the mail votes and the post office slowing down mail (intentionally- facts)! And there was no more dems votes in any state/county than registered that story was debunked! This forum is painful to sift through these messages, Dan you are a champ for putting up with us morons.

PA Citizen

In PA the law was that they cannot even open the envelopes of mail in ballots until election day. The Democrats tried to request that they be allowed to start early so we don’t end up like this but the Republicans stopped that. Can’t have it both ways. I understand the law previously was not to allow ballots to be opened before election day but then you can’t complain when it takes time to count those ballots if it is not going in your favor.

Yanky H.

I heard that in 2 states there were more Dem votes than registered Dems.

hello

Well if all dems would vote democrat and all republicans would vote republican there would be no need for elections

RA

Is it not conceivable that a registered republican might vote for a Democrat? I did that, 2 days ago in fact

GUWonder

Actually that is what is to be expected when more people legitimately vote in an election than are formally registered with a party affiliation. In 2016, Trump won in places where there were more Republican votes than there were registered Republicans. Or do you want to call Trump’s vote count in 2016 illegitimate too? 😉

mark

That was fake. the tweeter was fooled and took it down.

Eric

Apparently you do not understand voting in the US.

Party affiliation is not required to vote in the general election, and even if you are registered with a party, you don’t need to vote for any of that party’s candidates.

GUWonder

The most substantial fraud that has taken place in this election is Trump’s doing: claiming to have won an election well before the vote counting is even close to over enough to honestly and accurately claim victory; attempting to delegitimize historically normal voting, vote-counting and election result distribution practices; messing around with the US Postal Service and other institutions to try to suppress votes being counted from areas that would likely be big Biden-supporting areas; the hypocrisy of calling for votes to continue to be counted where he is behind while calling for the votes to stop being counted where and when he has a diminishing lead or sees defeat coming with all the votes being counted.

The greatest election fraud in America during this year is being done by and on behalf of Trump, the con-artist-in-chief himself: claiming victory when not victorious, and attempting to delegitimize the election and the victories of any who may defeat him in an election. Sadly, it seems like millions of more people support Trump in 2020 than supported him in 2016, and this is even after all of Trump’s lying, all his other disreputable actions as President, and his mismanagement with COVID-19 that caused hundreds of thousands of dead Americans and an ongoing economic disaster on a level not seen in America since the Great Depression.

Trump’s quite the role model for children and the rest of the community? Well, if he’s good enough to be your choice for President, he’s good enough to be the role
model for behavior you want to see from and in the community. Next time someone treats you like Trump treats others, try not to be a snowflake about it since you are getting what you voted for: Trump.

shuster

fascinating scenario, won’t happen but definitely fun to ponder.

here’s another one, what happens a loser refuses to accept defeat? this one unfortunately is
more likely to occur, good thing history has shown some folks are all yap yap yap.

YM

Classically, not knowing anything about politics (not being American) when I saw the post titled ‘… College tie..’ I honestly thought it was something about printing/selling a (neck)tie with some sort of imagery about the elections…

ross

We were actually saved! If Trump had won, there would not be one building or business either standing or completely looted. Hodu!

Aron

So the conventional thinking is if they threaten us we should fold so that they don’t hurt us? Cower away so as not to upset the other side?

Chaim

So instead of believing in God, you believe in Joe Biden!

pptel

Dont recall anything like that happening in 2016. His election that time was much bigger shock.

Should tell you that your propositions are devoid of any basis.

Yitz

That was before defund the police

Not dan

It could happen if trump keeps everything he has looses pa and wins a recount of Wisconsin it will be 269-269 I think

GUWonder

Trump can’t win in Wisconsin with a recount in Wisconsin. Hillary Clinton and the greenies tried that in 2016 when Trump got Wisconsin. He is entitled to a recount in the state but it won’t do him any good.

Not dan

And he wins Arizona

Never Biden

There is way too much “fish” around the results. Thinks are just looking more and more suspicious.

Shayna

You’re hilarious. Are you suspicious of votes/counties/states that went your way too?

Eliyahu

Tie can still happen!

The late votes in NV and AZ are going Trump.
If he wins those 2 and PA, but loses GA, we’ll officially have a 2020 tie!

Bob

Biden’s margin in Nevada went from 8,000 to 12,000. Dream on.

jordan Cohen

Trump humiliates Jews everyday yet we still vote for him

moe8555

How do you figure???

One of us

Jordan Cohen humiliates Jews everyday.
How this sound to u?
Not right?!
So how come you go on the street and say something that’s not right about someone else.

GUWonder

In 2020, Trump over-performed 2016 when it came to African-American males, Latino males and Asian males. He seems to have gotten 15-20% of African-American males and a third of Latino and Asian males this time, and that’s a huge increase over 2016. He even did better with Muslim males in 2020 than 2016. Trump also did better with European-American women in 2020 than he did in 2016.

I have to give Trump credit for getting votes (and more votes in 2020) from people for whom he has no respect or genuine care: all his anxious European-American working class base and a hodgepodge of others afraid of “the others”.

pptel

Reminds me of thought process of Jewish businessmen in Berlin in 1930s who were confident that this new guy was going to solve the Roma immigrants problem, put country first, stop UK/France from taking advantage with bad treaties, definitely going to help businesses.

Dave

Right… And did that German guy throw support and financial support towards Israel, remove funding from the Palestinians. You’ve experience Trump for 4 years; to compare him to Hitler this late in the game is blindly absurd and polarized.

Marty

Can’t say too much, but here’s what’s going to happen … Trump will win the presidency in 2 weeks from now. A second round of impeachment proceedings will follow immediately. There will also be 2 assassination attempts. Other things coming as well ….

Yanky H.

Just curious where you take the info from? Are you Kabalistic?

Moshe

You might be right. When I take off my foil hat, the voices tell me similar things.

Heshy

One thing that did happen as predicted…. Seems like the Media forgot about covid

In the poor house

Bottom line: when am I getting my $1200 stimulus check???

Menachem H.

First person to speak the truth

Joe

770 votes for Biden now, close the poll

Pupdity scoop
Baruch

Random question Dan, can you please post an article about the new “checkpoints” that NYC is supposedly setting up for cars coming into the city?

Dave

#Fakenews. There are no reports of checkpoints coming thru the Outerbridge, Goethals, Holland, Lincoln, GWB, or from the north

Never Biden

Why aren’t they letting in republican observers if there’s nothing to hide. Democats doesn’t this sound familiar?

ross

At this point it’s not going to be a tie. Maybe going forward, lets adopt the Israeli system. We’ll have a few do-overs, and then for the first two years, one can be the pres and the other is the foreign minister, then for the rest, the pres job switches and the other can be the finance minister. the country is so divided anyway.

JR

Just wanted to drop a line to say my apologies to many of your viewers, but also Mazal tov to so many of us as well who voted for Biden and are hoping for a better America for all! This a time to reflect and heal as a nation, try to bring people back together.

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